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Investment Analysis : New Age Decisions
It’s ironic that a country that boasts of being one of the leaders in Software and Development still has a movie industry that solely rests on age old tools of decision making.
Every Friday decides what producers and financiers will invest in, for the next 500 Fridays. Fashion and In Vogue may be the new buzz words but their meaning is the same old - look what happened last Friday. If the movie was a big hit - that’s what the audiences like. Lets make a similar movie.
Over a hundred projects then go on the floors each one making a “similar” movie.
The result is experimentation is non existent. Writers with amazing stories that aren’t based on “the current trend” are shown the door. Directors cannot take projects they would love to. Actors change shirts on different sets but feel they are doing the same role over and over again (though many of them are sticklers to the “Last Friday Syndrome”)
This post isn’t one for those producers and financiers who invest in projects for the love of it. Rather it is with respect to finding solutions for the executive in the newly upcoming studios of Bollywood or the producer/financier who can calculate 2473221 times 4560987, in his brain in a fraction of a second, but can’t think much beyond the “Last Friday Syndrome” (LFS)
The Financiers won’t think beyond LFS, because most of them see movie making as a lottery/lotto. Studio executives won’t see beyond an LFS, because every Friday is the day that finds them nail biting over - “will I or won’t I…. lose my job”… Movies are being thus made on this tool forever now… what succeeded last Friday… and then we are bombarded with clones… hundreds and thousands of them… for a year, two, three and in some cases for an entire decade… the guys won’t stop till they literally see our brains having turned into over fried omelettes.
How does one find a common ground? One where such financiers would have more confidence in projects that don’t stick to the LFS formula? One where more opportunities than the few minuscule ones are created for the talented writers and creative directors?
It is imperative that Science of Management seep into this iron shut world of financiers.
Recently a management company came out with a unique concept… a model called “Bollywood Predictameter”. Based on this model, the company would predict the success or failure of a movie… even before it’s promos are released. Much was discussed about this model on Desi Talk, by me… and surprisingly many of it’s predictions have come true.
But it is just a beginning. According to my view the Predictameter gauges the interest level in the general audience based on the movie’s name and the team. Perhaps a short story line.
But our objectives lie in having the studios/financiers open up and get past LFS.
For this the science of management needs to knock on their doors a couple of steps before hand, namely…
The script reading stage. Or the stage where the script is read out to them.
This is a stage where the now up and coming studios and independent producers could make use of some management tools… these are similar to what many other industries try out, to see if a new product they have planned or designed, would be accepted or rejected by the market.
Hence scripts can be read out to focus groups. In this case it is important to understand the structure, make up and the elements of the focus group. Reading a story about depression and death to a focus group consisting of retired men and women is definitely out of question.
Rang De Basanti was one movie, I hear, that applied this tool to see the acceptability factor of the movie. Some writers may take this as an insult… but somewhere along, one step has to be taken in the right direction. Inch by inch towards the middle of the road.
Another way could be storyboarding an idea and checking the impact out, with some of the audience, the movie will be eventually targeted to. For example if the script is primarily aimed at children, then it wouldn’t be a bad idea to turn the script first into a comic book, and then a focus group consisting of children is brought in to read the comic.
Hardliners may argue there is a cost attached to all this. I agree. But the cost of using a management tool which may conclude the failure of a story idea, is peanuts, compared to the cost of financing an entire movie and the producer applying for bankruptcy on the day of it’s release.
With a studio system coming up in Bollywood and producers opening various departments in their offices, an R&D or a Trial&Test department is the need of the hour. Fixed budgets are allocated to such departments which should be directly proportional to the budgets allocated to script development or perhaps the time and money spent in listening to scripts.
In a tight fisted world of Bollywood, where age old lost principles die hard, there has to be a way for such management tools to make inroads.
For such tools ensure greater experimentation. And most importantly such tools reduce the risk and greatly increase the assurance factor - the success of the movie, thereby making the financier/producer/studio more open to accepting stories on different topics and range.
Creativity and Talent thus find more doors opening up to them. And in the end the success of the movie builds the trust of the producer in such management tools.
It’s still a risk of course. But so is building a new product, a new software, a new website or starting a new restaurant. But the mindless Last Friday Syndrome and the Lottery mentality is something which doesn’t exist to such limits of craziness in any other industry as it does in Bollywood and most the movie industries the world over.
It’s time to “think” and have creativity and finance meet on middle ground, one which will benefit both the parties. It may not be the best of solutions… but hey… it’s a good start… a safe start…
17 Responses to “Investment Analysis : New Age Decisions”
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You have some great pointers here Oz. However, one must realize that main issue for the predominant, conformist attitude in the Indian film industry is because of a lack of a definitive structure in the production companies and studios. Very few seem to have really got the hang of running the movie business. If one wants to try new themes and stories, one has to take risks. If you have to take a project by project risk, you cannot run a business and look at the individual performance of a film.
For instance, Ramgopal Varma’s Factory, Subhash Ghai’s Mukta Arts, and Ronnie Screvwala’s UTV have got it right in that they don’t bother with a per film performance. They look at the larger picture - annual turnover. Our dear Ramu can afford 5-6 low-budget flops a year (Vastu Shastra, My Wife’s Murder etc.), as long as he has 1-2 movies (Sarkar) making money. Also, in companies like the Factory, the capital is constantly rotating. So the moment revenue comes in for a film, it is immediately pumped into another project. The company is always working at any given point, so there is never any fear of running out of business.
The key is, if you want to experiment, don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Don’t look for immediate profits to sit fat in the bank. Rotate the capital constantly till you get yourself in a position where you can afford to keep a portion of revenue in your “Dont Touch” profit stash.
In my opinion, this is something very difficult for independent producers to do. It is up to corporatized studios and production houses to take on. And, it’s not something you have to do with an insane amount of money. You have to start small. Instead of making 1 film for 50 crores and hoping for it to make a profit, make 5 films for 10 crores each. 2 may fail, 1 may break even, 2 may make fat profits. Consider the investment worth it.
Nice piece Oz, but u need to realise something, unlike the Hollywood model where a lot of money is spent in ‘development’ fees, the business model here is totally different.
Writers work on specs 90% of the time without being paid an advance. A film is ready to be made if an actor says yes, good or bad does not matter, simply because in todays market unless u are a fool for a producer it is actually impossible to LOSE MONEY!!!
With so many avenues, even a flop film makes money. So the first criteria for a film to be made be it a corporate or an independent producer, no one will bother with testing the script once an actor is on board.
Secondly storyboarding is a very costly exercise. Market surveys and test groups as a concept is alien to most filmmakers and producers as they relate it more to advertising.
The predictameter, according to me doesn’t work because NO ONE can predict the success of a film, LOC had the whole industry, it didn’t open big. Refugee didn’t work, Omkara does not make it to be the biggest hit of the year despite being a superlative film, Lagaan almost did not get made.
Secondly VIJAY’s point about not making one 50 crore film and making 5 ten crore film, well that is exactly what corporates are doing:)unless one is making a film that justifies the need for a big budget, most films budget averages between 8-15 crores. In the words of William Goldman ‘Nobody knows anything’
So Oz, there is no such thing as ’safe’, you can have nothing and have a hit, you can have everything and have a flop, the best best thing is to make what you believe in, so end of the day when u live with the success or failure of the film you live with your belief
suparn wanted to know how much a writer can demand in bollywood for his scripts and secondly how much do in house writers in corporate houses such as utv , percept n say adlabs get paid?
thnx,
akshay
oz, a line from arpita’s previous post can be tweaked to summarize what you said, and rightfully so.. she said “art suffers in the name of ideology whereas ideology flourishes under the umbrella of art.”
replace “ideology” with “money” and there you have LFS. and the sad, bitter truth is as suparn said it… “A film is ready to be made if an actor says yes, good or bad does not matter”
we already know this to be true in anurag’s case.. i haven’t seen his films, but from his posts and from what i’ve heard from everyone, he seems to be a talented guy. BUT it took a john abraham for his film to get made. would this have happened if john hadn’t stood by anurag? probably, bc we know anurag to be a guy who doesn’t take no for an answer.. but would it have gotten the same response had it been a different actor?
another example that comes to mind is manish gupta, who recently finished directing “karma, confessions and holi” with sushmita, randeep hooda, naomi campbell, and drena deniro (robert deniro’s daughter). i had a screening of his debut film “indian fish in american waters” here in washington, and believe me, this guy did not seem like a debutant at all. for a first film, it looked like a REALLY polished film. and i know the troubles he went thru to get a financier for his project. again, he had to get the actors to say yes before he could get anywhere.
don’t get me wrong. i do like your idea, and i would love to see it put into effect.. especially in an industry where everyone seems to just jump on the bandwagon, there’s no harm in trying out something new, but i’m very skeptical as to what extent it would work.
as for the predictameter.. i’ve had my own version of it to share with friends of mine. i really need to login to your talk show… :-?
Oz, I would also like to blog here. Can u tell me if its possible. N if so how do i start blogging here ?
phoenix, click this link to get in touch with oz and get started:
http://passionforcinema.com/contact/
look forward to having you on-board as an author.
Would it be true to say that writers and directors do not know how to pitch their story/idea to investors in an efficient manner? Surely they need to concentrate more on convincing the investors that this particular idea would fetch you the money and it’s not risky i.e showing that there is an audience for it. It’s about selling your perspective to the investors. There are not that many successful… are there?
No Hoonhar it would not be true to say so. Filmmakers know very well how to sell their subjects to investors. It is the investor who has to hedge his bets, so they will not go for risky unless a big name (star) is involved and most stars shy away from risky as failure is an option! And this is true all over the world. Getting a film made is am IMMENSELY complex procedure, much more tiring than making the film itself, so simplistic point of views cannot apply
erm then, i would say investors do not understand the market. A big star movie would only work if it has Yash Raj or Karan Johar banner attached to it, otherwise it would be very hard to work, right? For example, Swades did not click.
So would not it be far riskier for (other)investors to make a movie with a big name actor than making a movie with non-stars?
by the way, how did you get the investment for your debut film - imo, which does not have any stars/crowd-pullers?
(sorry for asking some really stupid questions, but i don’t know much about the industry.)
Hoonhaar I made my film in 3.25 crores it sold for 7.5 crores!!! so producer was very happy
- Suparn… it’s 1am in India… don’t you ever sleep? :-??
Oz I sleep at 5 am and wake up at 8:) hate sleeping
Interesting to find another person who hates sleep, Suparn! I can’t do with 3 hours of sleep though…
Good piece, Oz!
Vijay: You can include Yash Raj Films too in that list of ‘corporates’ though they have been playing quite safe till now…
Randramble, i have panic attacks if I sleep too much, feel like the world is passing me by, that I will die tomorrow and would have done and experienced nothing, so keep writing, reading or watching a movie, the best sleep is what u get when you are awake for three days and get 6-7 hours straight
Seeing as supran doesn’t like sleeping he might as well start to characterise his next movie on some of the contributors here :)
Interesting post Oz, you raise some good points.
striker, oz seems to be very busy….wrote him thrice….no reply yet:((